Tropical Storm Francine Forms in the Gulf; Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches in Effect

 Key Points:

- Tropical Storm Francine has developed in the western Gulf of Mexico.

- It's expected to intensify into a hurricane as it moves toward the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts by Wednesday.

- Potential threats include flooding rainfall, storm surge, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

- Francine is the first Atlantic

storm since Ernesto, which formed around three weeks ago.

Tropical Storm Francine has developed in the western Gulf of Mexico and is expected to become a hurricane threat to parts of Louisiana by Wednesday.

The National Hurricane Center officially named Tropical Storm Francine on Monday morning, marking the sixth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and the first in nearly three weeks.

Current Status: Francine is currently situated over 400 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana, and is slowly moving north-northwest. Most of the system's rainfall remains offshore for now, though some rain bands have already reached parts of South Texas intermittently.

Minor coastal flooding was recorded Monday morning by tidal gauges along the Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward.

**Watches and Warnings**:  

- A hurricane watch is in effect from Cameron to Grand Isle, Louisiana. Typically, these watches are issued 48 hours before hazardous conditions are expected, giving residents time to prepare.  

- A storm surge watch has been issued from High Island, Texas, east of Galveston Bay, to the Mississippi-Alabama border, including Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas. This watch indicates the possibility of life-threatening storm surge in these areas within 48 hours.  

- Tropical storm watches are active from northeast Mexico to Port Mansfield, Texas, and from east of Galveston Bay to Cameron, Louisiana, as well as from Grand Isle to the Louisiana-Mississippi border, including Lake Pontchartrain. These watches mean tropical storm-force winds are possible in the areas within the next 48 hours.

Francine is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall along the Louisiana coast by Wednesday. The storm is forecast to move over very warm Gulf waters, which could fuel its intensification, though increasing wind shear and drier air near the Gulf Coast might limit its strength near land. 

**Potential Impacts of Flooding Rainfall**

Bands of heavy rain are expected to affect parts of the coast from South Texas to Louisiana, Mississippi, and southern Alabama starting Tuesday, continuing through Wednesday night or early Thursday.

Rainfall totals from Francine could reach 4 to 8 inches, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, affecting the coast of far northeast Mexico, the southern Texas coast, and parts of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi through Thursday morning.

Given that the soil in these regions is already saturated from recent heavy rains, flash flooding is a significant concern.

The heavy rain from this system will extend to other parts of the South, reaching as far north as the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys later in the week, where localized flooding is also possible.

There may be a sharp contrast in rainfall amounts to the west and northwest of Francine's path, as drier air could be drawn in. Areas not far inland from the Texas coast might see little to no rainfall.

**Storm Surge**

Life-threatening storm surge is expected to develop and flood low-lying areas along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts starting Tuesday night.

According to the National Hurricane Center, peak inundation could reach 5 to 10 feet in parts of southern Louisiana, including Vermilion Bay, if the surge coincides with high tide.

This peak surge is anticipated to occur within a few hours of landfall on Wednesday. However, coastal flooding may persist into Thursday morning in some areas of the Gulf Coast, including as far east as Mobile Bay.

Residents should follow local officials' instructions and evacuate if ordered.

**Damaging Winds**

Hurricane conditions could reach areas under hurricane alerts in southern Louisiana by Wednesday afternoon. Complete all preparations by Wednesday morning, when tropical storm force winds may start.

These winds have the potential to down trees and cause power outages in southern Louisiana. Be prepared for possible power disruptions that could last several days after the storm passes.

Tropical storm force winds are also possible along the South Texas coast, as well as in parts of southeast Louisiana and the upper Texas coast. Expect scattered power outages and some tree damage in these areas.

**Possible Tornadoes**

Landfalling tropical cyclones can sometimes spawn tornadoes near and inland from their landfall points. An isolated tornado threat from this system could develop by Wednesday or Wednesday night in southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle.

The tornado threat may continue along the northern Gulf Coast on Thursday and could extend as far north as the Tennessee Valley by Friday.

**First in a While**

Francine is the first Atlantic storm since Ernesto moved into the North Atlantic Ocean on August 20. 

According to WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry, it's been 30 years since the Atlantic Basin experienced a full week of September without any active tropical cyclones.

Colorado State University tropical scientist Phil Klotzbach noted that the last time the Atlantic Basin went from August 13 through September 8 without any storms forming was in 1968.